Resolution Foundation: a quiet productivity pickup may be under way
Tax data suggest output per hour has grown about 1.1% a year over two years — a broad-based improvement.
The Resolution Foundation's third-quarter macroeconomic policy outlook makes a striking claim: tax records suggest output per hour has been growing at roughly 1.1% a year over the past two years, and the pickup looks broad-based rather than confined to a few sectors.
If it holds, that is the most important number in this month's crop. Productivity growth near zero has been the UK's defining economic problem since the financial crisis, capping pay, tax revenue and sustainable growth all at once.
The use of tax data is the interesting methodological move — administrative records can catch turns earlier than the survey-based official series, though they can also mislead.
It is one estimate from one report, but it offers a mechanism for the economy's 'unexpected resilience': if firms really are producing more per hour, growth can run firmer without stoking inflation.